Automotive Industry Hot Topics with CAR Senior Industry Analyst, Dr. Snehasis Ganguly  �(03/15/2024)

This week we are joined by a special guest, Dr. Snehasis Ganguly, Senior Industry Analyst at CAR. Snehasis covers and shares his thoughts on the latest Hot Topics happening in the automotive industry. If you would like to receive this bi-weekly insight into critical industry issues you and your organization are facing, sign up for our mailing list�/span>here to get Hot Topics sent directly to your inbox.  

 

EV Tax Credits:�/span>

• GM says it built about 20,000 EVs that did not qualify for tax credits 
• Federal Tax Credits for Plug-in Electric and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles Purchased in 2023 or After 
• GM optimistic about EVs, despite $150 million hiccup and return of hybrids 
• To get the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit, you may no longer have to wait until tax season 

Snehasis’ thoughts:

Due to revised regulations, General Motors (GM) missed out on a tax credit for 20,000 electric cars, resulting in a $150 million cost to GM. GM remains optimistic about the future of EVs even though the path forward is more complex, including EPA objectives. There are many federal, state, and local-level tax incentives for new and used EVs, but OEMs, dealerships, and customers must carefully understand the laws. For example, starting in 2024, a point-of-sale discount will be offered to customers by participating dealers. Customers no longer must wait until tax season, the year after purchase. 

 

Manufacturing & Plant Developments:

• Korea-Based LT Precision Plans Holland, Michigan, Headquarters 
• Rivian’s pivot to Ill. plant for R2 model saves time, money vs. future Georgia site 
• Automaker Rivian pauses construction of its $5 billion electric truck plant in Georgia 
• Plans to Expand U.S. Chip Manufacturing Are Running Into Obstacles 

Snehasis’ thoughts:

The plan for LT Precision to open a manufacturing operation in Holland, Michigan, is a win for the state of Michigan and demonstrates a successful partnership between national, state, and local levels. Therefore, the speed and ease of doing business across the United States remains crucial in deciding where to invest. Rivian is moving away from its under-construction Georgia plant to use an existing Illinois facility, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is struggling with building a plant in Arizona. Thus, it is in the broader national interest for individual states with advanced manufacturing endowments to remain attractive places to do business. This includes factors such as cost of living, price, reliability of electricity, water rights, local taxes, and local building regulations. 

 

Battery Sourcing & Tech:

• Exclusive: Gulf oil giants Saudi Aramco, Adnoc set sights on lithium 
• Slower EV growth triggered lower lithium prices 
• Cobalt-free batteries could power cars of the future 
• Volvo invests in, taps Breathe Battery tech for 30% faster EV charging 

Snehasis’ thoughts:

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates’ national oil companies plan to extract lithium from brine in their oilfields, which aligns with efforts to diversify their economies and profit from the shift to electric vehicles (EVs). At the same time, lithium prices were lower because market demand for electric vehicles fell below industry expectations, even though factory capacity grew. A few innovations in sustainability and battery charging are at the forefront of the news. MIT has designed a new lithium-ion battery with a cathode based on organic materials instead of cobalt or nickel. Another innovation is Breathe’s algorithm-based charging software, which provides greater visibility on the health of individual cells within the battery pack, allowing the EV to charge at full power while maintaining safety and without altering battery chemistry.

 

Happy International Women’s Day! This week we asked some members of the Center for Automotive research team to share what they have been reading, watching, or listening to recently by trailblazing women in the automotive industry.

What Lisa is Checking Out: 

• Fang Research Group
• Key Issues Hindering a Practical Lithium-Metal Anode
• Paige Johnson
• Ten-Nine Tech
• SkillFusion
• Elaina Farnsworth

Lisa’s Thoughts:

During this time of transition for the automotive industry, innovation is thriving. The automotive industry’s significant emphasis on sustainability underscores its transition, necessitating adaptations in energy sources, propulsion systems, raw and manufactured materials, and the concurrent infrastructure to support transformative changes. As we observe International Women’s Day, let’s honor and celebrate the pioneering contributions of three remarkable women in the automotive, battery, and technology sectors.

Concerns surrounding the transition to electric vehicles include battery range anxiety, the necessity for alternative battery technologies, and the availability of charging infrastructure. Developing lithium metal batteries with higher energy density has the potential to address EV battery range concerns associated with lithium-ion batteries. Dr. Chengcheng Fang is leading the development of anode-free lithium metal batteries in her lab at Michigan State University. In contrast to graphite anodes in lithium-ion batteries, lithium metal anodes have over ten times the capacity and the potential to double EV battery range.

Another concern for the EV transition involves addressing constraints posed by the limited availability of raw battery minerals. Establishing domestically-sourced battery chemistry solutions has the potential to address these limitations. Paige Johnson is the founder and CEO of Ten-nine Technologies, overseeing the production of her patented cathode nano-additive designed to increase battery cathode capacity. This additive material alleviates strain on the cathode supply chain and is crafted through a sustainable, carbon-neutral production process.

Tackling the challenges associated with EV charging infrastructure involves boosting the availability and function of the network. An essential component of this endeavor includes cultivating a proficient and expanded workforce. Developing a learning platform for EV supply equipment operations and maintenance providers empowers individuals to enhance their skills for emerging jobs, cultivating a talent pipeline of certified technicians crucial for the success of charging infrastructure. As the CEO and co-founder of SkillFusion, Elaina Farnsworth guides this initiative to drive expansion of the charging network nationwide.

Implementing sustainability solutions for transportation seems monumental, yet it presents an exciting opportunity. Innovative leaders are developing solutions to support sustainable transportation technologies, and it is inspiring to see women leading the way and spearheading initiatives in this field.  

What Alan is Checking Out: 

• The Unicorn Within – How Companies Can Create Game-Changing Ventures at Startup Speed

Alan’s Thoughts:

I’ve been enjoying Linda Yatesâ€?latest book The Unicorn Within: How Companies Can Create Game-Changing Ventures at Startup Speed. Linda provides not only a discussion of innovation but a “how toâ€?manual for large companies to beat start-ups at their own game. Innovation is a form of corporate renewal and is essential to retaining and growing market share amid fierce competition. Many companies are quite adept at incremental innovation spurred by continuous improvement or cost-reduction initiatives. However, radical innovation can be more difficult to achieve, especially in large, risk-averse corporations. Linda provides insight into how large corporations can be successful entrepreneurs through venture building and venture investing. This International Women’s Day let’s celebrate Linda, the founder and CEO of Mach 49 and a Henry Crown Fellow with the Aspen Institute. Her relentless drive has companies across industries rethinking their strategies, and now she is setting her sights on transforming the auto industry. Linda, and all the trailblazers like her, inspire us to push boundaries and forge our own paths. In Linda’s own words, “The time to start is now. The moment is here. Go do great things.”  

What Morghan is Checking Out:

• This is the first crash test dummy modeled on the female body. Will it make cars safer for women?
• Improving safety for women requires more than a female crash test dummy

Morghan’s Thoughts:

The SET 50F is the first crash dummy modeled after the female body. Women are 73% more likely to be injured in frontal collisions compared to men which is a scary but true statistic. Previous models such as the Hybrid III dummy used by the European New Car Assessment Program intended to represent a small woman, however, it is a scaled-down version of a male model. This Swedish creation is the first to be modeled entirely after a woman. Along with the SET 50F, new computational modeling allows for an unlimited number of models to be tested virtually, and studying real-life scenarios will also help improve the safety of women involved in crashes. Despite these developments, Jessica Jermakain, Vice President of Vehicle Research at the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, talks about how efforts should go further past this. She mentions a good point in the article; new technologies can help improve the safety of women in vehicles, however, it is something that should continue to evolve and be in the minds of those working within the automotive industry.  

Automotive Industry Hot Topics with CAR Research Fellow, Kwaku Prakah-Asante  �(03/01/2024)

This week we are joined by a special guest, Kwaku Prakah-Asante, Research Fellow at CAR. Kwaku covers and shares his thoughts on the latest Hot Topics happening in the automotive industry.If you would like to receive this bi-weekly insight into critical industry issues you and your organization are facing, sign up for our mailing list�/span>here to get Hot Topics sent directly to your inbox.  

 

SUVs in Europe:�/span>

• SUV, non merci! Paris votes to triple parking charges for hefty cars 
• Turns out, Europeans love big olâ€?SUVs as much as Americans do 
• Are cars getting too big for the road? 
• SUVs Conquer Europe, Now Account For Over Half Of All New Car Sales 

Kwaku’s thoughts:

Sustaining the development of products which resonate with consumers is essential for creating and capturing value. How should a company continue to anticipate the evolving needs of consumers globally? While SUV production has predominantly catered to the multi-purpose vehicle demands of the US market, what about Europe? How is the SUV market evolving there, and how does consumer demand shape decision-making for SUV production, technology development, societal implications, and policy decisions? 

An interesting phenomenon is occurring in the European SUV market. SUV sales were dominant in 2023, with 6.63 million units sold, accounting for about 51% of total vehicle sales. The sales figures in 2023 represent an increase of about 19% from 2022. Small and compact SUVs have been instrumental in driving growth. OEMs have provided electrified options that present alternative choices for European consumers. The increasing demand for SUVs is fueled by characteristics such as additional space for more passengers, flexible luggage storage, along with a range of propulsion options available at different price points. As SUVs increase in the fleet, implications on infrastructure, safety, and policy decision-making become extremely relevant.  

The Paris vote to triple parking charges for SUVs underscores the significance of employing an integrated systems approach to innovation to understand the social and economic impacts. Utilizing vehicle connectivity and computational intelligence methods to inform drivers about available parking resources may be beneficial. In addition, multi-modal transportation strategies may become more significant for respective SUV owners in city environments. Having a continuous laser focus on the evolving needs of the consumer to tailor vehicle design, technology, and the consumer experience drives opportunities to maximize value globally. 

 

Push for Tariffs:

• Tesla CEO Musk: Chinese EV firms will ‘demolish’ rivals without trade barriers 
• UAW calls for higher tariffs on vehicles, auto parts amid USMCA concerns 
• European automakers brace for possible Trump tariffs 
• Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares gears up for EV-driven industry shakeout 
•  

Kwaku’s thoughts:

The Electric Vehicle (EV) market’s response to consumer demands for more affordable options has intensified global competition. OEMs have been working on innovative solutions across the EV value chain to develop and manufacture vehicles between $11K to $25K. Cost advantages in some countries may foster the development of lower cost options, contributing to the increasing call for more tariffs in the EV domain. The US tariffs on passenger vehicles for imports from Europe and China are 2.5% and 27.5%, respectively. While tariff policy discussions continue, it is imperative for OEMs to strategically position themselves for ongoing innovation. 

To successfully produce lower-cost EVs that align with consumer preferences and remain profitable, a shift toward consumer-driven personalized approaches in vehicle design, product development, and technology-driven manufacturing is underway. Collaboration with other OEMs, supplier alignment, and leveraging intellectual property should be exercised.  

Ultimately, policy decisions and innovation strategies should account for socio-economic implications, extended consequences on the supply chain, and availability of consumer choices to ensure the sustainability of a viable automotive ecosystem. 

 

Affordability Future Factors:

• Digital sales leads grow as more car shoppers begin the process online 
• Car insurance rates jump 26% across the U.S. in 2024, report shows 
• Ford is getting rid of 1 vehicle feature to save $10M â€?but many people won’t notice 
• Used EV prices are a moving target in a developing market 
• Ford CEO Jim Farley: Smaller, profitable EVs are nonnegotiable; UAW ‘relationship has changed’ 

Kwaku’s thoughts:

The increasing prices for new cars and the overall cost of vehicle ownership is impacting consumer behavior. Consumers unable to afford new vehicles may opt for used vehicles, or even keep their vehicles longer, thus impacting new vehicle sales. The US Bureau of Transportation Statistics indicates that the vehicle fleet average age is now about 12.2 years. Consequently, stakeholders in the automotive industry are focused on developing Profitable Affordable Cars (PACs), and strategically incorporating features to maximize value in the consumer ownership experience. EV price points under $15K are being realized, prompting intense global competition in the affordable electric vehicle space. Companies are galvanizing resources to innovate across the EV value chain to identify, develop, and introduce viable affordable options.  

In addition, incorporating artificial intelligence, machine learning, and vehicle connectivity to understand consumer usage of features and services provides the means to prioritize consumer preferences, delivering enhanced value and minimizing costs. Furthermore, it is beneficial to align PAC product development and manufacturing initiatives with existing resources and capabilities. Where capability gaps are identified, strategic use of build, buy, or partner options should be considered to generate value. EVs that resonate with consumers provide opportunities to grow and promote adoption in the EV market. 

   

   

Check out what CAR has been checking out! We asked some members of the Center for Automotive research team to share what they have been reading, watching, or listening to recently.

What Tyler is Checking Out: 

• Republicans for EVs: Future Electric Vehicles | EV Politics Project
• How to overcome the biggest obstacle to electric vehicles (economist.com)
• The politics of polarization have come for electric vehicles (axios.com)
• pdf (berkeley.edu)

Tyler’s Thoughts:

A working paper recently released by UC Berkeley’s Energy Institute at Haas highlights a correlation between political ideology and EV adoption in the US. Looking at an 11-year period, from 2012 to 2022, their findings suggest widespread EV adoption will be more difficult than previously thought â€?about half of EV sales are concentrated in the 10% most Democratic counties. EVs have become a partisan issue. This problem facing EV adoption prompted the formation of the EV Politics Project, started by a Republican campaign operative, which is dedicated to researching and overcoming the “Red State EV Curtainâ€?problem and ending the partisan EV divide. Interestingly, despite the political divide in EV adoption, CAR Book of Deals data shows that nearly two-thirds of automakers announced investment tied to electrification during this same period (2012-2022) has been captured by states with Republican governors. The first operating NEVI-funded charging station was in Ohio, led by Republican Governor Mike DeWine. Republican Governor Brian Kemp is working to make Georgia the “electric mobility capitalâ€?of the US. It appears that while the left-leaning consumer is more favorable of EVs, Republican states are the first ones capitalizing on EV transition investment. This political divide poses one more hurdle to EV adoption, in addition to other consumer concerns like range anxiety and cost. Throw in the fact that it is an election year with the likely candidates firmly at odds on electric vehicles, this is an interesting space to watch.  

What Yen is Checking Out: 

• China Becomes the World’s Biggest Auto Exporter – With Help from Russia
• Mexico Could Help This Huge Chinese Carmaker Crack the US Market
• Why China Poses a Growing Threat to U.S. Auto Industry

Yen’s Thoughts:

China has established itself as the leading global motor vehicle exporter, with nearly five million units shipped last year according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. A lesser-known fact is that a significant portion of Chinese vehicles exported to Mexico, the second-largest overseas market for Chinese vehicles by volume, bear the Chevrolet badge. Produced by GM’s Chinese joint venture partners, SAIC and Wuling, these “American-Chinese” vehicles surpassed 110,000 units in shipments to Mexico last year. Remarkably, they accounted for 15 percent of all imported vehicles in the Mexican market and secured an 8 percent share of the total Mexican light-duty vehicle market.  

What Cullen is Checking Out:

• Carbon Sovereignty: Coal, Development, and Energy Transition in the Navajo Nation

Cullen’s Thoughts:

I have been writing a paper on the mobility sector’s intersection with tribal energy sovereignty & free prior and informed consent (FPIC) �two concepts that promote tribal nations�right to self-determination on energy production, consumption, and their role in the current energy transition. The mobility sector’s intersection in the energy transition relies on and encourages the use of massive amounts of domestically available critical minerals, the majority of which are on or near tribal lands. This is why it is tremendously important to consider the ethical implications of a just energy transition in the context of the vast injustices inflicted on tribal peoples throughout history and into the present.

Andrew Curley’s recent book, Carbon Sovereignty: Coal,Development, and Energy Transition in the Navajo Nation, helped me understand the complex interactions between tribal nations and energy production and consumption. As a member of the Navajo Nation, Curley explain show energy sovereignty (in this case through coal production and energy generation on the Navajo Nation’s lands) holds critical significance for the Navajo Nation �providing economic independence and labor opportunities to the tribe. However, Curley also documents the shifting dynamics within and outside of the tribe over this issue; for example, as factories dwindled and environmental concerns mounted, some members of the Navajo community supported continued investment in coal, while others sought to transition away from it. Those shifting dynamics were eye-opening for me to learn about and absorb within the context of the ongoing energy transition. It underscores the importance of ensuring that the mobility sector, like all other aspects of society, engages with this transition in just and equitable ways.

 

What Snehasis is Checking Out:

• Nebraska experts weigh highway safety and electric vehicles | College of Engineering | University of Nebraska–Lincoln (unl.edu)
• As EV sales surge and cars get heavier, parking garages have to change (cnbc.com)
• The Future of the Highway Trust Fund: The Impact of EVs | Bipartisan Policy Center
• EV fires are more dangerous. Farmington Hills Fire Department hopes new equipment can help (clickondetroit.com)

Snehasis’ Thoughts

The higher EV adoption rate results in infrastructure challenges beyond the electrical grid. Safety concerns, vehicle optimization, and roadway funding models require attention to ensure a smooth transition. Specific dangers like EV fires also necessitate specialized training and equipment for first responders. At the same time, this provides a new economic growth opportunity for the nation to redo our infrastructure and look for innovative ways to smooth the transition. Creative new concepts to combine EVs and mobility solutions for infrastructure make it an exciting future.

Automotive Industry Hot Topics with CAR President and CEO, Alan Amici –�(02/02/2024)

On a bi-weekly basis, the Center for Automotive Research (CAR) welcomes our audience to decompress with our President and CEO, Alan Amici, as he covers and shares his thoughts on the latest Hot Topics happening in the automotive industry. If you would like to receive this bi-weekly insight into critical industry issues you and your organization are facing, sign up for our mailing list�/span>here to get Hot Topics sent directly to your inbox.  

 

Tesla Vs Cheaper EVs:�/span> 

• Exclusive: Tesla plans to build new electric vehicles in mid-2025 
• Tesla warns of growing competition from automakers in China 
• Judge voids Elon Musk’s ‘unfathomable’ $56 billion Tesla pay package 

Alan’s thoughts:

The $25,000 EV may become a reality! Tesla announced a next–generation EV under development that will likely spur sales of EVs based upon a favorable price point. With each new generation, EVs incorporate lessons learned from previous iterations, enabling cost reductions, improved manufacturing productivity, and the incorporation of innovative features. For the transition from ICE to EV to be effective from a CO2 reduction view, we need to see the democratization of EVs for the masses. Reducing the high price point of EVs today would go a long way to increase market acceptance. 

 

Rocky Road to Autonomous Vehicles:

• Driverless cars immune from traffic tickets in California under current laws 
• GM’s Cruise faces long road back to city streets in wake of safety review 
• Aptiv to cut stake in robotaxi tech firm Motional, stop funding 

Alan’s thoughts:

Aptiv has decided to follow the same path of Ford and VW in the autonomous vehicle development space and will no longer contribute capital to Motional, a joint venture with automaker Hyundai. This further underscores the challenges associated with mastering level 4 autonomy. Waymo and Cruise remain in the game as the most mature passenger car AV developers in the US. This doesn’t bode well for the vision of AVs filling our streets anytime soon. Anticipate further industry contraction in this space as other firms decide to redirect their capital towards more attractive projects with higher potential ROI. 

 

EV Charging:

• Why cold temperatures hurt EV range, charging times 
• How To Keep Electric Vehicles Charged In Extreme Cold 
• USPS Shows Off A New Charging Station In Georgia 
• Is This The Answer To Overnight Urban EV Charging? 

Alan’s thoughts:

The USPS is implementing a clever initiative by installing EV charging stations at postal sorting and delivery centers, ensuring their fleet is efficiently serviced while reloading. The first charging stations are in south Atlanta, and there are plans for the deployment of hundreds more. This effort is a component of a substantial $40 billion investment in electrification. 

Cold weather does indeed affect EV performance and charging. EV batteries are sensitive to extreme temperatures, both hot and cold. During cold weather, an EV will “pre-condition�the battery by heating it to a more optimal temperature to maximize charging efficiency. When a vehicle anticipates an upcoming charge, such as a charger reservation or map routing, the vehicle can precondition the battery during the drive. By the time the charging station is reached, the battery is at the correct temperature to accept the charge in the shortest amount of time. Without pre-conditioning, charging times may be prolonged, causing customer dissatisfaction. This requires some planning on the owner’s part and will be part of the lifestyle change when switching to an EV. 

   

   

Check out what CAR has been checking out! We asked some members of the Center for Automotive research team to share what they have been reading, watching, or listening to recently.

What Kwaku is Checking Out: 

• Artificial Intelligence Methods in In-Cabin Use Cases: A Survey

Kwaku’s Thoughts:

An Intelligent Vehicle Digital Cabin (IVDC) leverages real-time characterization of
the driver’s state, intent, and behavior to tailor features and services to the consumer. 
The integration of computational intelligence, AI/ML, sensing methods, and connectivity
information plays a significant role in delivering and capturing value from an IVDC for stakeholders.

The paper “Artificial Intelligence Methods in In-Cabin Use Cases: A Survey,�reviews
interesting contributions leveraging AI/ML for driver state monitoring, driving assistance,
and takeover readiness.

 

What Prasad is Checking Out: 

• Battery Circular Economy Initiative Dashboard
• How Tesla’s New Unboxed Process Will Drop Costs by 30% (or more) 
• Tesla’s Unboxed Process Reduces Costs by Over 30%

Prasad’s Thoughts:

Minerals without mines and assembly without lines are two auto industry disruptors that are keeping me awake at night these days. This first has to do with the circular economy around electric vehicle batteries. The second has to do with autonomous vehicles redefining an automaker’s factory �no not autonomous cars, but autonomous carts with vehicle sub-systems, programmatically moving in a factory to “self-assemble�into cars.  Certainly, artificial intelligence and human intelligence coexist throughout, with human factory labor taking on new roles strategically assigned in select areas. The implications extend to sustainability, technology, labor, economics, and policy and the results will be fascinating.

 

What Steve is Checking Out:

• Hyundai Mobis Introduces MOBION and Its Core Electric Vehicle Technologies at CES 2024

• Samsung Partners With Hyundai Motor Group To Present a Future Lifestyle Connecting the Smart Home With Connected Cars 

• Talk of hydrogen fuel for emission-free vehicles was back at CES 2024 

Steve’s Thoughts:

I have been impressed with Hyundai’s growth over the years and especially now, their transformation from a low-cost entrant to a reputable OEM and tier supplier brings forth a lot of great technologies. What strikes me most is that Hyundai is involved in so many technologies across a variety of industries providing a variety of propelled products including cars, trucks, marine, agriculture, etc.  It provides an ideal development path to introduce new technologies in lower volume, lower risk applications and progress them into higher volume and more cost-sensitive markets. They have a great number of activities and announcements with numerous tech giants in alternative propulsion, AI, Connectivity and SDV.  

What Alex is Checking Out:

• The Collecting Cars Podcast with Chris Harris
• Expect EVs to get cheaper in 2024, experts say: ‘More incentives, more discounting’
• After Big Tesla Bet, Hertz Selling One-Third of EV Fleet

Alex’s Thoughts

A recent Hertz regulatory filing cited weaker demand and higher operating costs for electric vehicles as the firm looks to sell 20,000 EVs in the U.S., which will fund the purchase of replacement vehicles with internal combustion engines. Efforts by OEMs to lower vehicle costs through manufacturing techniques like gigacasting, coupled with Tesla’s aggressive push to cut prices and maintain its market share dominance in EV sales, continue to contribute to the depreciation of EV residual shares.

Furthermore, while IRA requirements effective January 1st, 2024 restrict the number of vehicles eligible for the Clean Vehicle Credit, subsidies include another attempt to reduce vehicle prices for prospective buyers in a high-interest rate environment. These pressures reduce the resale value of EVs and influence the size of Hertz’s loss on the liquidation of their EV fleet. Hertz’s oversized bet does not promote a smooth recovery from bankruptcy. However, the flood of EVs from their former fleet into the used marketplace could sustain downward pressure on vehicle prices and facilitate gradual EV adoption into the future.

Automotive Industry Hot Topics with Industry Analyst, Tyler Harp –�(01/19/2024)

This week we are joined by a special guest, Tyler Harp, Industry Analyst at CAR. Tyler covers and shares his thoughts on the latest Hot Topics happening in the automotive industry. If you would like to receive this bi-weekly insight into critical industry issues you and your organization are facing, sign up for our mailing list�/span>here to get Hot Topics sent directly to your inbox. 

 

The Future of Auto Shows:�/span>

• What’s next for auto shows? Rescheduled 2025 Detroit show may point the way 
• Detroit auto show will return to former January slot 
• Commentary: CES is expensive, but skipping it could be even more costly for Detroit 3 
• Column: Is CES worth auto industry’s time? You better believe it 
• Magna Advances Road Safety with Impaired Driving Prevention Technology 

Tyler’s thoughts:

In an era of declining brand loyalty and a shift of consumer focus toward convenience and safety features (i.e. ADAS), auto shows can play a vital role in showcasing a company’s latest tech. They provide opportunities to engage with car buyers, drumming up brand enthusiasm with interactive exhibits. Opting out will prove costly, especially as competitors take full advantage. There is another marketing benefit in addition to consumer awareness �talent attraction. The EV transition, SDV evolution, and drive towards autonomy mean that automakers are competing with Silicon Valley and big tech for talent. These events provide a platform for automakers and suppliers to show the world, and future STEM graduates, that automotive is a “sexy�industry to be in.  

 

The Uphill Climb for EVs: 

• House votes down Biden ‘Buy Americaâ€?waiver for EV chargers 
• U.S. on track to ‘meet and exceed’ goal of 500,000 public EV chargers 
• China’s EV stocks start 2024 in reverse gear as price wars pressure profitability 
• Hertz Will Shrink Electric Fleet After Being Burned by Tesla’s Price Cuts 
• ‘Remarkable’ surge in auto insurance costs fans US inflation 

Tyler’s thoughts:

I had the good fortune to attend the 30th Annual Automotive Insights Symposium, held at the 7th District of the Federal Reserve Bank �Detroit Branch. In the opening presentation, a compelling visual of the Moore’s Technology Adoption Life Cycle demonstrated where the EV market may currently be: “The Chasm.�/span> This is the gap between tech enthusiasts and visionaries who make up 16% of the population, and pragmatists who make up 34%. Including hybrids, electrified vehicles represented 16-17% of US light vehicle sales in 2023. This brings us right to the edge of the chasm with practical mainstream adoption on the other side. To make this leap, solid EV infrastructure and affordability are key. Progress is being made, but slowly �potentially too slow to meet EV goals. There are considerable headwinds including political opposition, increasing insurance premiums, and competitive price wars slashing profitability (if there was profitability to be had in the first place). But even with these challenges, record investment by automakers suggests that it is not a question of if, but when EVs will be commonplace. Unlike for Sisyphus, the EV hilltop can be reached.  

 

UAW Targets Non-Union Manufacturers: 

• UAW Starts Unionizing Largest U.S. Mercedes Plant In Campaign Targeting Non-Union Auto Manufacturers 
• Tesla and the UAW are careening toward a showdown over unionization  
• UAW President Shawn Fain calls Tesla pay raise for its factory workers the ‘UAW bump’ 

Tyler’s thoughts:

Non-union autoworkers are receiving raises, including at Tesla, Volkswagen, Hyundai, Toyota, and Honda, in what UAW President Shawn Fain would attribute to the “UAW Bump.�Following a very public and dramatic contract negotiation with the Detroit Three, the UAW is attempting to capitalize on its success to unionize 13 other automakers in the US. These raises are likely a ploy aimed to thwart this endeavor, a strategy that has proved successful in the past. However, after winning record contracts, it could be argued that the UAW “owes�it to the Detroit Three to go after non-union automakers. The Detroit Three market share has dropped from 90% in the 1960’s to just shy of 40% in 2023. These record contracts could pose a competitive disadvantage in labor cost, even after factoring in the “UAW Bump.�/span> With the latest contract in hand, Shawn Fain has an excellent advert for how the UAW can benefit non-union auto workers. Considering the momentum already seen in Tennessee and Alabama, his message seems to be carrying weight. 

   

Automotive Industry Hot Topics with CAR President and CEO, Alan Amici –�(01/05/2024)

On a bi-weekly basis, the Center for Automotive Research (CAR) welcomes our audience to decompress with our President and CEO, Alan Amici, as he covers and shares his thoughts on the latest Hot Topics happening in the automotive industry. If you would like to receive this bi-weekly insight into critical industry issues you and your organization are facing, sign up for our mailing list�/span>here to get Hot Topics sent directly to your inbox.  

 

In-Vehicle Tech Advances & Setbacks:

• GM Says It’s Ditching Apple CarPlay and Android Auto for Your Safety 
• Tesla recalls nearly all vehicles sold in US to fix system that monitors drivers using Autopilot 
• An abused wife took on Tesla over tracking tech. She lost. 

Alan’s thoughts:

Early last year, GM raised eyebrows by announcing it was dropping the popular CarPlay and Android Auto from future vehicles. Recently, GM shed light on the motivation behind such a move. I suspect that most people who have used CarPlay and Android Auto have experienced “drop-outs�while driving. Whether warranted or not, users will often blame the automaker for such poor performance. The underlying challenge stems from the clock speed of cell phone application software which changes much more frequently than automotive infotainment systems. This makes system interoperability testing extremely complex. Consequently, some applications will lack the desired robustness, resulting in user dissatisfaction. GM’s strategy aims to address this issue by offering a solution combining the characteristics of automotive robustness with a cell phone’s frequent over-the-air updates, such as maps. We will have to wait to see if GM can execute this vision. 

 

The Push for Auto Sales: 

• Whitmer floats tax rebate plan for new vehicle sales, ties higher rebates to union shops 
• Tesla shares 48V architecture with other automakers to move the industry 
• Ford Will Cut Planned Electric F-150 Production as Demand Slows 
• Tesla Model Y is #2 US Bestseller in 2023 through Q3, Behind Perennial #1 Ford F-150, and Ahead of Toyota RAV4 

Alan’s thoughts:

The 48 volt architecture is back? Seeming to have more lives than Morris the Cat, the architecture can be found on Tesla’s new Cybertruck. While numerous automakers have implemented sub-systems powered by 48 volts (e-Torq, electric power steering, etc.), few if any, have fully eliminated 12 volt networks. As students of Ohm know, 48 volt networks provide the same power delivery of a 12 volt system at ¼ the current. This means wire harnesses can use thinner wires reducing cost and weight. The main sticking point has long been the 70-year legacy of 12 volt electrical components (such as radios, window lift motors, etc.) ingrained in the supply base, providing reliable, robust, and readily available components at scale. Transitioning to 48 volts means the supply base must redesign and retool while continuing to earn a profit on commoditized components �a formidable task in today’s environment. 

 

Labor Update: 

• Tesla to raise pay about 10% for hourly workers in January, report says 
• More than 1,000 VW workers in Tennessee sign union representation cards -UAW 
• General Motors says 1,300 workers will be laid off at two Michigan plants 
• Tesla to be asked by Nordic pension funds to respect collective bargaining 
• GM’s Cruise laying off 900 employees, or 24% of its workforce: Read the memo here 

Alan’s thoughts:

The battleground for autoworker organizing is shifting towards the south and west as the UAW seeks to grow its membership after securing contracts with the Detroit 3. Tesla recently announced anticipatory pay raises, mimicking recent moves by Toyota, Honda, and Hyundai. The challenge will be significant, but the UAW is leveraging its momentum to turn the tide of autoworker sentiment in the south. Keep an eye out for potential discussions that could reshape the landscape of labor within the industry.   

   

Check out what CAR has been checking out! We asked some members of the Center for Automotive research team to share what they have been reading, watching, or listening to recently.

What Snehasis is Checking Out: 

• LIVE CHAT: CES 2024 Preview | LinkedIn
• CES 2024 Tech Trends

Snehasis�Thoughts:

The tech world is gearing up for the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2024, and anticipation is running high. From cutting-edge TVs with breathtaking picture quality to groundbreaking innovations in health and wellness, CES 2024 promises to showcase the latest technologies that will shape the future. Some of the hottest trends to watch for include:

1. The Rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI)
2. Autonomous and Micro Mobility
3. Health and Wellness Innovation
4. Sustainability in the Spotlight
5. Features and experience including business cases
6. Robotics and Automation
7. The Unexpected: CES is always known for its surprises, and 2024 is likely to be no different. Expect to see new and unexpected technologies that will push the boundaries of what we thought possible.

CES 2024 promises to be an exciting event that will offer a glimpse into the future of technology. With so much innovation on the horizon, it’s clear that the technology industry is constantly evolving and pushing boundaries, making our lives easier, more connected, and more enjoyable.

 

What Yen is Checking Out: 

• Department of Energy Releases Proposed Interpretive Guidance on Foreign Entity of Concern and Public Comment
• New US Rules, Aimed at curbing China, could limit tax credits for electric vehicles
• White House details term that could slash eligibility for EV tax credits

Yen’s Thoughts:

Beginning January 1, 2024, electric vehicle (EV) batteries incorporating components sourced from China, such as electrode active materials (including cathode materials, anode materials, anode foils, electrochemically active materials), battery cells, and battery modules, will disqualify the EV from eligibility for the $7,500 clean vehicle tax credit. This regulation poses a substantial hurdle for automakers currently reliant on Chinese EV batteries and components. Notably, the United States imported over $1.6 billion worth of EV batteries and components from China through September 2023, constituting over 70% of total EV battery imports. This regulation serves to incentivize automakers and battery manufacturers to establish a domestic supply chain for EV batteries. Despite an investment surpassing $120 billion in the past two years, the majority of these investments are not expected to yield battery cell production until 2025 or later. This timeline underscores the urgency for accelerated development and production processes to support the U.S. EV transition.

 

What Lisa is Checking Out:

Revolutionizing Road Safety: How AI Is Making Driving Safer Than Ever | LinkedIn

Lisa’s Thoughts:

In this blog post, the authors explain how new technology in vehicle safety systems (aka, advanced driver assistance systems: ADAS) incorporates artificial intelligence (AI). The article outlines two interesting and important topics: it provides a review of the driver assistance technology that is revolutionizing driver safety, and it demystifies the way AI is incorporated into products that we use daily (e.g., our cars). A great read for those who are interested in learning the terminology and capabilities of driver assistance systems. Further, this post outlines the benefits of ADAS including more sophisticated collision avoidance, object detection, timely warning systems, and most importantly, the limitations of the technology. One of the most critical aspects of understanding driver assistance systems involves avoiding over-reliance on automated systems and avoiding assumptions that vehicle technology eliminates the need for driver attention. Currently, humans are still better equipped to detect and react appropriately to unexpected and unusual situations.  

What CAR is Checking Out:

Newlab

The CAR team and partners spent the afternoon at Newlab touring their building and hearing industry experts discuss the automotive happenings in 2023 and outlooks for 2024 at our December Drives and Holiday Vibes industry briefing & networking event.

Automotive Industry Hot Topics with CAR President and CEO, Alan Amici –�(12/01/2023)

On a bi-weekly basis, the Center for Automotive Research (CAR) welcomes our audience to decompress with our President and CEO, Alan Amici, as he covers and shares his thoughts on the latest Hot Topics happening in the automotive industry. If you would like to receive this bi-weekly insight into critical industry issues you and your organization are facing, sign up for our mailing list�/span>here to get Hot Topics sent directly to your inbox.  

Hype for Hybrids:

• America’s top-selling car will soon come only as a hybrid
• November inventory trends: Leftover â€?3s, an EV plateau, and hybrid hype 
• The auto industry overestimated EV demand this year. Now companies are scrambling. 
• Hybrid vehicle sales surge in China, posing fresh threat to foreign automakers  

 

Alan’s thoughts:

A recent resurgence in hybrid model sales is causing automakers to rethink their portfolios. Toyota’s HEV lineup, featuring popular models such as the Prius, Camry, and Rav4, is experiencing strong demand, prompting other automakers to assess the pace of their transition to pure EVs. This shift is evident on a global scale, impacting the markets in China, the US, and the EU. Price matters and EVs are expensive, especially when considering interest rates for new car sales. The message to the industry: find a way to make EVs more affordable. The message to policymakers: market forces are powerful, and consumers will choose the best option that best fits their needs. 

 

The Battle for Battery Plants: 

• Ford to scale back plans for $3.5 billion Michigan battery plant as EV demand disappoints, labor costs rise 
• Stellantis declined Michigan’s $1 billion offer for EV battery plant 
• Intelligent industry for automakers: Supercharging EV battery manufacturing 
• Up to 900 foreign workers coming to Windsor to help build EV battery plant, NextStar says amid backlash 

 

Alan’s thoughts:

The battle for EV battery plants is uneven, unpredictable, and not for the faint of heart. Ford is scaling back plans on their joint venture with CATL in Michigan, citing cost containment and an overexuberant demand forecast. Stellantis spurned generous incentives from Michigan in selecting a Kokomo, Indiana site for a second battery plant. The Canadian government is facing backlash over the prospect of foreign workers handling equipment set up. Supply chain management is especially challenging when implementing new technology, establishing new plants, gaining access to critical minerals, and managing costs concurrently. This is further exacerbated by uncertain EV demand through 2030. Buckle your seatbelts and hang on tight. 

 

Reducing Emissions: 

• U.S. finalizes rule requiring states to set transportation emission targets 
• Biden’s clean energy agenda faces mounting headwinds 
• Decarbonizing Heavy Transportation: Quantron’s Michael Perschke On Pioneering Hydrogen Solutions 

Alan’s thoughts:

Long haul trucking has been frequently cited as one of the best applications for hydrogen (H2) fuel cells, offering an advantage over electric vehicles (EVs) by avoiding the payload-reducing weight of pure EV batteries. Fuel cells appear to be a good candidate due to fast refueling times and range. However, the H2 infrastructure is even more nascent than the EV charging networks. The EV alternative will require reconfiguring the logistics networks into a spoke and hub arrangement to accommodate the expected range of EV trucks. This is a massive undertaking and still requires infrastructure improvements to accommodate DC fast charging of large capacity batteries used in trucking. I’m encouraged by having multiple alternatives, but these long-term strategic decisions are not to be taken lightly, as they will significantly impact the movement of goods for decades to come.